You don\u2019t have to be a statistician to play bridge. \u00a0You don\u2019t have to know binomial distributions or how to calculate exact odds for the distribution of the missing cards in a suit. \u00a0It really is helpful, though, to know the approximate odds for how the missing cards in a suit will split when you are the declarer. \u00a0I\u2019ll try not to give you raw percentages, but I\u2019ll provide you some mnemonics to help you remember them.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a great page on these odds at\u00a0http:\/\/www.rpbridge.net\/4b00.htm<\/a><\/p>\n Suit Break Thumb Rule<\/strong>: If you are missing an\u00a0odd<\/em>\u00a0number of cards they are more likely to break nearly evenly more often than not. \u00a0If you are missing an\u00a0even<\/em>\u00a0number of cards they will split evenly less often than they will split unevenly. \u00a0For example, missing 5 cards they will split 3-2 or 2-3 more often than not. \u00a0If you are missing 6 cards they will split 4-2 or 2-4 more often than they will split 3-3.<\/p>\n Missing 2 Cards:<\/strong>\u00a0 The 1-1 split is only slightly more likely than the 2-0 split. \u00a0Usually you should play to\u00a0drop\u00a0<\/span>a missing King.<\/p>\n Missing 3 Cards:\u00a0<\/strong>The 2-1 split is a little bit better than a\u00a0 3\u00a0<\/span>out of \u00a0\u00a0<\/span>4 \u00a0<\/span>chance.<\/p>\n Missing 4 Cards: \u00a0<\/strong>You will get a 2-2 split approximately \u00a04 \u00a0<\/span>times out of\u00a010.<\/span> \u00a0(Mnemonic: \u00a02+2 = 4). \u00a0You should play\u00a0to drop<\/span>\u00a0a missing Queen in the absence of other information.<\/p>\n Missing 5 Cards<\/strong>: \u00a0They will split 2-3 approximately\u00a02\u00a0<\/span>out of every\u00a0\u00a03 \u00a0<\/span>times. \u00a0You should play to\u00a0finesse<\/span>\u00a0a missing Queen in the absence of other information.<\/p>\n Missing 6 Cards:<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0They will split 3-3 a little more than \u00a01 \u00a0<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a0 out of every\u00a0 3<\/span>\u00a0 times. \u00a0They will split 2-4 nearly\u00a0one-half\u00a0<\/span>of the time. \u00a0(Mnemonic: 2\/4 = 1\/2).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" You don\u2019t have to be a statistician to play bridge. \u00a0You don\u2019t have to know binomial distributions or how to calculate exact odds for the distribution of the missing cards in a suit. \u00a0It really is helpful, though, to know…
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